Capitals vs. Islanders: Series Review And Trends Analysis


Picture: AP/Frank Franklin II

It’s not an precise playoff sequence, however it’s definitely gonna to really feel like one. The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders are set to start a three-game set beginning Thursday evening in New York. As soon as once more, first place within the East Division can be on the road.

The 2 groups will square-off once more on Saturday in New York after which return to the District for his or her season sequence finale subsequent Tuesday at Capital One Enviornment.

Within the run-up to the primary sport on Thursday evening we wished first shed some mild on the primary 5 video games of the sequence performed thus far this season after which establish key traits from the earlier 5 video games. We are going to take a look at:

  • Basic sport stats
  • Save percentages
  • Capturing percentages
  • Capturing/possession metrics
  • Low, medium and high-danger shot makes an attempt
  • Objectives and anticipated targets differentials
  • Goaltenders

GENERAL GAME STATS

We start this assessment with a take a look at the fundamental sport stats from every of the 5 video games performed so  far.

The Capitals gained the primary three video games of the sequence (within the District) and the Islanders have gained the final two video games (on the Island).

Sport Averages

The next are the averages for every of the aforementioned stats for the 5 video games performed between the 2 groups thus far this season.

The Islanders have led in pictures on aim, (and shot makes an attempt, as we’ll see later in his put up). In addition they maintain a slight edge in face-offs , hits and blocked pictures for the sequence.

The Capitals have dominated the particular groups battle from the primary sport of the season sequence, averaging a whopping 50% on the facility play. They’re presently first within the league on the facility play at 27.6%. The Islanders are twenty fifth within the league on the facility play at 17.5%.

The Capitals are seventh within the league in penalty kill at 83.5%, whereas the Islanders are tenth within the league at 82.5%.


SAVE PERCENTAGE (EVEN STRENGTH)

The next graph plots the save percentages of every crew at even-strength for every sport of the 5 video games performed so far. The Capitals (crimson) and Islanders (blue):

The Islanders have two of the league’s finest netminders in Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin. Nonetheless, the Capitals netminders have stepped up within the sequence, main two of the video games at even-strength and basically enjoying even within the first sport of the sequence.

Vitek Vanecek is 2-1-0 within the sequence. Ilya Samsonov is 1-1-0 in opposition to the Islanders thus far this season.


SHOOTING PERCENTAGE (EVEN STRENGTH)

The following graph merely plots every groups taking pictures share at even energy for every of the primary 5 video games of the sequence. (Capitals – crimson, Islanders – blue).

This stat is pretty even over the course of the 5 video games performed. The primary sport was basically even, with the Capitals dominating the second sport and the Islanders dominating the fourth sport. Each groups have been shutout in a single sport at even-strength.


SHOOTING/POSSESSION METRICS

The next graph plots the shot makes an attempt percentages for (CF% – mild blue), high-danger shot makes an attempt percentages for (HDCF% – medium mild blue), scoring probabilities for percentages (SCF% – medium darkish blue) and anticipated targets for percentages (xGF% – darkish blue) for the Capitals in every of the 5 video games so far. (Click on to enlarge).

Probably probably the most regarding set of stats are these offered above, because the pattern has been steadily reducing with the doable exception of the final sport.

The Capitals general greater taking pictures share (10.8%, first in NHL) has countered these stats to some extent, however the general pattern is unquestionably regarding to Laviolette and firm. The Islanders are sixth within the league in taking pictures share at 9.2%.


LOW, MEDIUM AND HIGH-DANGER SHOT ATTEMPTS PERCENTAGES

The following visualization plots the low, medium and excessive hazard shot try percentages for every crew in every sport. Capitals (crimson) and Islanders (blue):

The Capitals have led in low-danger shot makes an attempt in three of the 5 video games whereas the Islanders have led medium-danger shot makes an attempt in three of the 5 video games. The Islanders have led in high-danger shot makes an attempt in 4 of the 5 video games so far. This may point out that the Islanders have been doing a greater job getting the puck into the scoring zones, and maintain an edge in battles low and across the crease.


GOALS AND EXPECTED GOALS DIFFERENTIALS

The next plot depicts the precise targets for and anticipated targets for differentials (GF – xGF) and the precise targets in opposition to and anticipated targets in opposition to differential (xGA – GA) for the Capitals within the first 5 video games of the sequence.

The Capitals outperformed the anticipated targets for and anticipated targets in opposition to within the second and fourth video games. The fourth sport is an fascinating sport in that, though the Islanders gained the sport, the Capitals outperformed the Islanders in a majority of the statistical classes.

The Islanders dominated the third and fifth sport of the sequence, with the primary sport of the sequence basically even.


GOALTENDERS – 5v5

The next graph plots the save percentages and targets in opposition to averages at five-on-five for every of the Capitals and Islanders goaltenders.

Once more, that is an space the place the Islanders have outperformed the remainder of the East Division thus far this season, and can be a key indicator in how the three sport sequence will play out.


GOALS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE AND GOALS AGAINST DIFFERENTIALS (xGA – GA)

The ultimate graph plots the targets saved above common (GSAA – blue) and the anticipated targets in opposition to and precise targets in opposition to differentials for every of goaltenders thus far this season.

Each of the Islanders netminders have outperformed the Capitals netminders by a large margin thus far this season.


SUMMARY

The following three video games are going to go a great distance in deciding who will take dwelling first place within the East Division this season. But it surely doesn’t get any simpler after that, because the Capitals then have a two-game set in opposition to the Penguins. The Penguins have a a lot simpler energy of schedule within the remaining video games and are only one level behind the Islanders and the Capitals within the standings.. (Click on to enlarge).

However first issues, first. The three-game set in opposition to the Islanders can be an important measuring stick for each groups because the postseason approaches. Watch the shot makes an attempt by location, goaltending at five-on-five and the specials groups battle for early indications on how every crew is performing.

These must be nice video games.

By Jon Sorensen

About Jon Sorensen

Jon has been a Caps fan since day one, attending his first sport on the Capital Centre in 1974. His ardour for the Caps has grown over the a long time, which has included time as a season ticket holder, social media and neighborhood organizer, and most lately led to the founding of NoVa Caps in 2014. Jon earned a Bachelor’s of Science in Civil Engineering at Outdated Dominion College, and is a Methods Engineer throughout intermissions, which has been instrumental in supporting his Capitals behavior.



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