Expected Points, May 25: Vera Zvonareva Aims To Qualify Like It’s 2002


Anticipated Factors, my new brief, each day podcast, highlights three numbers for instance stats, tendencies, and fascinating trivia across the sport.

Up as we speak: Casper Ruud will likely be a top-16 seed with a top-10 sport in Paris, Zvonareva is the highest seed in Roland Garros qualies, and the event of Diane Parry’s sport is going down is full view.

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Tough transcript of as we speak’s episode:

The primary quantity is 1.9%, Casper Ruud’s probability of successful the French Open, based on an early forecast primarily based on Tennis Summary Elo scores. Along with his title in Geneva final week, the Norwegian #1 improved to sixteenth within the ATP rankings and tenth on my Elo listing. A lot of Ruud’s true chance of going deep will rely on the luck of the draw this week. Set to be seeded between 13 and 16, he’ll line as much as face a top-four seed within the fourth spherical. If that seems to be Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic, it in all probability gained’t be Casper’s 12 months. If it’s the clay-phobic Daniil Medvedev or the out-of-form Dominic Thiem, the door will likely be open. The 22-year-old is 15 and 4 on clay this spring, with six top-20 wins and pair of Masters semi-finals. In a top-heavy area the place the favorites are Rafa, Rafa, and Rafa, everybody else is a darkish horse. But except for a handful of males with single-digit seeds subsequent to their names, Ruud is the one underdog with a non-negligible probability to dethrone him.

Our second quantity is nineteen, the variety of years since a 17-year-old Vera Zvonareva certified in her first look at Roland Garros. After dropping to Monica Niculescu within the ultimate spherical of the feeder match final fall, she’s the highest seed on this 12 months’s qualifying draw. Yesterday, she superior simply previous Francesca Jones, successful 6-1 6-2 in 72 minutes. Again in 2002, the Russian rode the momentum to her first deep run at a significant, beating Francesca Schiavone within the third spherical and taking a set from Serena Williams within the fourth. 5 years after giving delivery and enjoying her busiest schedule in practically a decade, the 36-year-old Russian is as soon as once more a menace on the Parisian clay. She’s 7-3 on grime this spring, together with a win over Petra Kvitova in Rome. With an improved rating after the Italian, if the French Open entry deadline had been as we speak, Zvonareva would benefit a spot in the primary draw. As it’s, it’s dangerous luck for Jones and for Miriam Bolkvadze, her subsequent opponent. The most important remaining impediment within the veteran’s path to the primary draw is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, a typically harmful participant who Zvonareva defeated simply final month in Madrid qualifying.

At present’s third and ultimate quantity is 218, Diane Parry’s rank on the Tennis Summary Elo listing. It’s higher than her place at #291 on the WTA laptop, but it surely’s nothing to be happy with: She’s lifeless final among the many 218 ladies with 10 or extra matches on the ITF $60K stage or above because the restart. The French 18-year-old with the one-handed backhand is a former junior primary, and like several promising French teen, she’s been wild-carded a slew of tour-level alternatives earlier than her sport is prepared. Parry suffered an eight-match dropping streak final fall, together with a first-rounder at Roland Garros, and she or he’s misplaced her final six matches as a wild card in any respect ranges. She’s on courtroom as we speak in Strasbourg, the place she could have drawn an opponent she will be able to deal with: fellow qualifier Jule Niemeier, a German 21-year-old additionally ranked exterior the highest 200. If that doesn’t work out, she gained’t have to attend lengthy for one more match: The French Open gave her a important draw wild card for the third straight 12 months.


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