Expected Points, June 1: Pedro Martinez Stands Athwart Potential


Anticipated Factors, my new quick, each day podcast, highlights three numbers as an instance stats, traits, and attention-grabbing trivia across the sport.

Up right now: Martinez stops Sebastian Korda, Garbine Muguruza suffers a uncommon loss to a low-ranked participant on clay, and Jelena Ostapenko as soon as once more heads house early.

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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed underneath a Inventive Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode

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Tough transcript of right now’s episode:

The primary quantity is 22, Garbine Muguruza’s successful streak on clay towards gamers ranked exterior the highest 75… earlier than yesterday’s match. Beating such modestly-ranked opponents is hardly a signature achievement, however Muguruza’s run was spectacular nonetheless. It spanned eight years, going all the way in which again to a loss in Strasbourg in 2013 to Lucie Hradecka, when Garbine herself was ranked solely 72nd. Monday night time, 81st-ranked Marta Kostyuk ended all that with an 83-minute, straight-set win, handing Muguruza her first-ever opening-round loss at Roland Garros. It concludes a disappointing clay-court season for a participant who carried appreciable momentum onto her favourite floor. The Spaniard received a title and reached two extra titles on laborious courts in 2021, however damage restricted her to solely three entries on clay and a mere three match wins. For 18-year-old Marta Kostyuk, the upset spawns alternative. All 4 matches in her part of the draw went the way in which of the underdog, so as an alternative of dirtballer Sara Sorribes Tormo, Kostyuk’s subsequent project is Saisai Zheng. The closest seed was #22 Petra Martic, till she was knocked out by Camila Giorgi. Muguruza’s early departure is nothing to be happy with, however not less than she needn’t endure alone.

Our second quantity is 28%, the speed of return factors received yesterday by Sebastian Korda in a shedding effort towards little-known Spaniard Pedro Martinez. Korda, the 20-year-old American sitting on a career-best rating of #50 after successful the title in Parma on Saturday, beat Martinez in Paris simply seven months in the past. Final yr, Korda flew by means of qualifying and raced to the fourth spherical on the French, beating Aslan Karatsev, John Isner, and Martinez earlier than lastly hitting a Rafael Nadal-shaped wall. Regardless of standing 6-foot-5 and carrying an American passport, Korda is a strong returner, successful greater than 41% of factors towards his opponents’ serves on clay courts at tour-level occasions. That’s higher than common for an ATP top-50 participant, and it’s approach higher than the efficiency he delivered yesterday. Martinez saved all 4 break factors he allowed, and Korda claimed a mere 10 of 55 factors when the Spaniard landed his first serve. To enhance on his 2020 fourth-round displaying, the American will should be rather a lot higher. Luckily, he often is.

Right now’s third and last quantity is 10, Jelena Ostapenko’s profession first-round exits from grand slams. For Ostapenko, who received the French Open in 2017 and has twice reached the ultimate eight at Wimbledon, it has all the time been feast or famine. Her attract Paris was nothing to envy, opening towards defending finalist Sofia Kenin, an American going by means of a tough patch however one who earned a top-five rating lower than 18 months in the past. The battle between former main champions Ostapenko and Kenin went the way in which of the American in three units, dropping the Latvian’s first-round report at Roland Garros to 2-4. It’s simple to poke enjoyable on the hyper-aggressive, demonstrative Ostapenko’s early exits, however Kenin is barely the most recent in a run of first-round opponents that no single participant deserves. In her quick profession, she has opened fortnights towards Petra Kvitova, Naomi Osaka, Kiki Bertens, Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sakkari, Karolina Muchova, Hsieh Su Wei—twice—and now Kenin. If there’s any justice within the grand slam universe, Ostapenko will coast to a different Wimbledon semi-final subsequent month on a observe greased with wild playing cards and fortunate losers.


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