Expected Points, June 8: The Return of Diego Schwartzman

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Anticipated Factors, my new brief, every day podcast, highlights three numbers as an instance stats, traits, and attention-grabbing trivia across the sport.

Up at present: Schwartzman is as soon as once more negating the server benefit, Elena Rybakina beat Serena by taking part in like Serena, and Daniil Medvedev goals to stay unbeaten in clay-court quarter-finals.

Scroll down for a transcript.

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Music: Love is the Chase by Admiral Bob (c) copyright 2021. Licensed below a Artistic Commons Attribution Noncommercial (3.0) license. Ft: Apoxode

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Tough transcript of at present’s episode:

The primary quantity is 28, Diego Schwartzman’s breaks of serve in his 4 French Open matches up to now. That’s greater than two per set, together with 8 in opposition to the big-serving Jan Lennard Struff yesterday. Schwartzman had struggled since reached the ultimate 4 in Paris final fall and carried a four-match shedding streak into Roland Garros final week. However because of a tender draw and maybe some good recollections, El Peque has received 12 straight units to earn a rematch of final yr’s semifinal with Rafael Nadal. He’s gotten this far by reviving his good returning type, a facet of his recreation that eluded him for a lot of the European clay season. In 5 losses within the final two months, he by no means received greater than 37% of return factors, hitting a nadir of twenty-two% in opposition to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo. On the French up to now, he’s received 51% of his opponents’ serve factors, together with 47% yesterday in opposition to Struff. It’s laborious to think about Schwartzman stunning Nadal tomorrow, as Rafa leads the head-to-head 10 to 1, together with a straight-setter in Paris eight months in the past. However Diego appears to be like to face a significantly better probability than he would have just some weeks in the past.

Our second quantity is 40%, the speed at which Elena Rybakina’s first serves didn’t come again on Sunday in her fourth-round match in opposition to Serena Williams. Serena was a longshot to win her twenty fourth grand slam at Roland Garros, however few observers pegged Rybakina because the one to beat her. The 21-year-old representing Kazakhstan turned Serena’s recreation plan in opposition to her, serving massive, hitting forehand winners when the serves dared to come back again, and shrugging off the inevitable errors. Rybakina’s common first serve was tougher than Williams’s, and he or she hit extra winners. The important thing was ending so many factors earlier than they began. In response to Match Charting Undertaking information, the common tour participant’s first serves are unreturned lower than 20% of the time on clay, and whereas Rybakina has sometimes approached 50% unreturned on laborious court docket, she’s generally under tour common on a sluggish floor. Within the quarters at present, Rybakina faces Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Pavs is unquestionably relieved to keep away from Williams, who has overwhelmed her in all six of their conferences. However the reduction could not final, as this week, Rybakina is taking part in a bit like Serena herself.

Right now’s third and last quantity is 100%, Daniil Medvedev’s successful proportion in clay-court quarter-finals. Medvedev finds himself in one other one at present because the underdog in opposition to fifth-seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, regardless of holding the #2 seed himself. Tsitsipas has excelled on the clay this season, successful Monte Carlo and almost dethroning Rafael Nadal in Barcelona, whereas Medvedev’s spring highlights have largely consisted of off-the-cuff remarks about how a lot he hates the floor. But the Russian has dropped just one set within the first 4 rounds, breaking Reilly Opelka 5 instances and simply dispatching Cristian Garin on Sunday. His profession document on clay is a meager 15-20, however this isn’t his first streak. In 2019, he beat Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic to succeed in the Monte Carlo semifinal, then backed it up with a runner-up displaying the next week in Barcelona, reaching and successful the one two clay-court quarter-finals of his profession. He’s barely received a match on the floor since, however Medvedev has the persistence and creativity to excel on sluggish surfaces, even when the bounce doesn’t favor his flat groundstrokes. Right now, followers will anticipate little from the Russian, however Tsitsipas absolutely is aware of higher, having misplaced that single clay-court encounter in opposition to him.

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