HomeSportsDeadspin predicts: Teams that will improve, or regress, in the second half
Deadspin predicts: Teams that will improve, or regress, in the second half
July 15, 2021
No. 1 Regressor: Cincinnati Reds
I like Jesse Winker, however is there a single individual on the market who believes he’ll proceed his dominant 2021 via the second half? I don’t suppose so. Nicholas Castellanos is a unbelievable ball participant, however will he proceed to hit over 30 factors larger than his earlier career-best batting common? Will he proceed to keep up an OPS over 100 factors larger than his earlier finest? I discover that tough to consider.
I perceive that it’s seemingly Eugenio Suarez has a greater second half, and the return of Mike Moustakas might assist the offense tremendously, but it surely’s extremely unlikely that each participant on the Reds presently exceeding expectations (there’s a variety of them) will proceed to take action at this fee. Is Cincy’s offense nonetheless unbelievable? Completely, however even a small total regression on the plate, will drastically have an effect on the staff’s document. If the bats settle down, they’ll not be capable of cowl up the staff’s poor pitching. As of proper now, the Cincinnati Reds enable the second-most runs per recreation of any staff over .500 — solely the Halos enable extra runs. There’s a cause no one believes the Angels are going to make a run on the playoffs regardless of the return of Mike Trout…as a result of they will’t preserve runs off the board.
The Reds will seemingly endure the identical destiny. When the division race heats up, the Reds will wrestle to place up runs in opposition to the opposite robust groups in that division with arms like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Jack Flaherty (who needs to be getting back from the IL mid-August), Kwang Hyun Kim, and John Gant down the stretch. If Cincy’s bats can keep sizzling, and knock opposing starters out early, the Reds would nonetheless have bother in opposition to divisional bullpens as, except for Cincinnati, each staff within the NL Central has a top-10 Nationwide League bullpen.
The Reds are presently on tempo to win 87 video games. They’ll in all probability end with anyplace between 80 and 83. If the staff buys on the deadline and provides some items to their bullpen, perhaps they may string collectively a robust sufficient second half to compete for the NL Central title, however till they make these strikes, the Reds don’t have the depth on protection to compete.