Bracketology: NCAA event projection as of March 13, 2021

Saturday options 15 convention championship video games, however there are a couple of tournaments that bubble groups can be monitoring intently because of the presence of remaining bid thieves.

Massive East – Georgetown has been the Cinderella story of the event, however bubble groups want for Creighton to emerge victoriously.

Pac-12 – Oregon State is within the finals after knocking off UCLA and Oregon on consecutive nights, however they might want to seal the deal by taking out third-seeded Colorado within the championship sport on Saturday night time. Bubble groups can be rooting on the Buffs.

American – Everybody not named Houston is a risk to bubble groups, notably Cincinnati and Memphis. Wichita State is within the at-large combine already, although a loss to Cincinnati would make their declare to a bid tenuous.

Throughout the flurry of computerized bids, I plan to proceed wanting over the seed listing to see if any minor tweaks are wanted.

Earlier than wanting on the one seeds, right here’s a fast reminder about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins primarily based on the NET ranking.

A breakdown of the 4 tiers:

· Quad 1: House vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: House vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: House vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: House vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351

One seeds

The one seeds stay unchanged with Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois staying placed on the highest line. Gonzaga received a scare from BYU within the WCC Last however pulled away late to lock up the highest total seed. Baylor misplaced an entertaining sport to Oklahoma State within the Massive 12 semis, however I nonetheless have the Bears slotted at second total.

Within the Massive Ten, each Michigan and Illinois blew out their quarterfinal opponents. Even when the Wolverines lose to Ohio State on Saturday, I don’t see them falling off the highest line. As for Illinois, shedding to Iowa would make issues fascinating relying on whether or not Alabama rolls by way of the SEC and whether or not Iowa can win the Massive Ten Event.

The Bracket

The projections beneath are primarily based on all video games performed by way of March 12, 2021. Following the bracket, I included a couple of ideas on the final 4 in and first 5 out.

Indianapolis Indianapolis
1) Gonzaga 1) Baylor
16) Norfolk St. / PV A&M 16) Hartford
8) Loyola Chicago
8) Wisconsin
9) Rutgers 9) North Carolina
Indianapolis Indianapolis
5) Villanova
5) Tennessee
12) Utah St. / Saint Louis 12) Winthrop
4) Virginia 4) Purdue
13) UC Santa Barbara 13) Colgate
Indianapolis Indianapolis
6) BYU 6) USC
11) Michigan St. 11) Louisville
3) Oklahoma St. 3) Arkansas
14) Jap Washington 14) Morehead St.
Indianapolis Indianapolis
7) Oklahoma 7) LSU
10) VCU 10) Georgia Tech
2) Ohio St. 2) Iowa
15) Grand Canyon
15) Drexel
Indianapolis Indianapolis
1) Illinois 1) Michigan
16) App. St. / Mount St. Mary’s 16) Iona
8) Clemson 8) San Diego St.
9) St. Bonaventure 9) Connecticut
Indianapolis Indianapolis
5) Creighton 5) Texas Tech
12) Drake / Syracuse 12) Western Kentucky
4) West Virginia 4) Florida St.
13) Buffalo 13) Liberty
Indianapolis Indianapolis
6) Colorado 6) Missouri
11) Wichita St.
11) UCLA
3) Kansas 3) Texas
14) UNC Greensboro 14) Abilene Christian
Indianapolis Indianapolis
7) Oregon 7) Florida
10) Virginia Tech 10) Maryland
2) Alabama 2) Houston
15) Oral Roberts 15) Cleveland St.

Final 4 In:

The final two byes proper now are Louisville and UCLA, and to me, they haven’t separated from the final 4 in. One of many issues I plan to do as we speak is dig into their profiles to see in the event that they belong within the first 4 instead of one among these groups.

Syracuse – It wouldn’t be March if the Orange weren’t on the bubble, and so they gave Virginia all it might deal with within the ACC quarterfinals, shedding on a last-second shot. To the extent that the attention take a look at comes into play, Syracuse handed it. In the event you look past that although, the Orange have only one quad 1 win (at NC State), whereas dwelling victories over Clemson, UNC, and Virginia Tech all sit in quad 2 together with two extra wins over NC State. Syracuse’s solely losses exterior of the quad 1 each got here to Pitt, and so they completed the season simply 2-7 in street video games.

Utah St. – The Aggies enter as we speak’s projected area after choosing up an enormous win in opposition to fellow bubbler Colorado State. That victory pushed Utah State into the highest 40 of the NET and offers them a 4-5 mark within the prime two quadrants, which incorporates two wins apiece in opposition to Colorado State and San Diego State, who the Aggies will face within the MWC remaining. They do have a pair of quad 3 losses, so that they aren’t fully protected but.

Drake – Taking part in with out two of its greatest gamers, Drake fell within the finals of the Missouri Valley convention event final weekend. The Bulldogs solely needed to win one sport to get there because of COVID points for Northern Iowa, however Drake’s lone event win over Missouri State did present a fifth quad 2 victory. A one-point extra time win over Loyola Chicago accounts for the Bulldogs’ lone victory over a crew within the prime 90 of the NET regardless of having these 5 quad 2 wins. A pair of quad 3 losses doesn’t assist issues, however losses by so a lot of their fellow bubble groups have probably helped their case. Given the harm state of affairs, the primary 4 appears a possible (and logical) vacation spot.

Saint Louis – Due to a prolonged COVID pause, the Billikens performed simply 10 convention video games, ending at 6-4 within the Atlantic-10. House victories over St. Bonaventure and LSU are amongst SLU’s 4 wins in opposition to the highest two quadrants, however the Billikens have been swept by Dayton (one among which falls in quad 3) and suffered one other quad 3 loss at La Salle. They took care of UMass of their first A-10 event sport however misplaced by 18 to St. Bonaventure within the semis. Like Drake, Saint Louis has benefited whereas idle because of the sequence of losses from different bubble groups. Finally the argument right here is predicated on each quad 3 losses coming proper after that one-month COVID pause, so their inclusion is banking on the committee taking that into consideration and slotting them within the first 4 with an opportunity to show they belong. Issues are extraordinarily shut between the Billikens and the primary two groups out, so I’ll be choosing these profiles aside over the following day or so.

First 5 Out:

Colorado State – Following their semifinal loss to Utah State, the Rams are proper on the cutline. They posted a 3-4 mark versus the opposite tournament-caliber squads within the Mountain West, and people three wins all fall within the prime two quadrants. CSU has no losses exterior of the highest two quadrants, however a whopping 10 of the Rams’ 17 D-I victories fall in quad 4. To be honest, solely a type of got here in opposition to a non-conference foe. A better take a look at their 4 quad 1 losses exhibits that CSU misplaced all of them by at the very least 12 factors. It’s going to be a nervous 36 hours for the Rams.

Ole Miss – The Rebels missed out on an enormous alternative on Friday, falling to LSU within the SEC quarterfinals. Ole Miss has three quad 1 wins and an 7-9 mark in opposition to the highest two quadrants, with a house win over Tennessee and a sweep of Missouri the one wins in opposition to at-large caliber groups. The Rebels have a pair of quad 3 losses and a complete of 5 losses to groups not within the at-large image. For what it’s value, they misplaced their two hardest non-conference video games, which got here at Dayton and residential in opposition to Wichita State. This 12 months is undoubtedly distinctive when it comes to how non-con efficiency may be judged, however all 5 of their non-con wins fall in quad 4, leaving them at simply 11-11 in opposition to the highest three quadrants.

Boise State – The Broncos misplaced to Nevada for a 3rd time this season and closed the season on a four-game shedding skid. The committee says they don’t put further weight on current play, however it’s additionally onerous to completely overlook. Boise State is 4-7 in opposition to the highest two quadrants with street wins at BYU and Colorado State to go along with a house sweep of Utah State. A late-season loss to Fresno State falls in quad 4 although, and as anticipated, they have been handed up primarily based onFriday’s outcomes.

Xavier – After blowing a double-digit lead in opposition to Butler within the Massive East event, the Musketeers are on the incorrect aspect of the minimize line. They’ve a 1-3 mark in quad 1 and are 5-4 in quad 2, however all of their prime 75 wins have come at dwelling (Creighton, Oklahoma, Toledo, St. John’s). The extra time loss to Butler gave Xavier its first loss exterior of the highest two quadrants and dropped them to almost sixtieth within the NET, however they’ve dropped 4 different video games to groups not within the at-large image and a complete of six video games to groups not in as we speak’s projected area. I’ll take yet one more shut take a look at Xavier’s profile, however for now, they’re on the surface wanting in.

Memphis – Lower than every week after shedding to Houston on a buzzer beater, the Tigers get one other crack on the Cougars. They don’t have any quad 1 victories and are simply 4-3 in quad 2 with zero wins in opposition to groups within the prime 50 of the NET. A house win over Wichita State helps for bubble functions, however there simply isn’t a lot meat on Memphis’ profile at this level, making the Houston sport a must-win.

Convention Breakdown:

Massive Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin

ACC (8): Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Massive 12 (7): Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia

SEC (6): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee

Pac-12 (4): Colorado, Oregon, UCLA, USC

Atlantic 10 (3): Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, VCU

Massive East (3): Connecticut, Creighton, Villanova

American (2): Houston, Wichita State

Missouri Valley (2): Drake, Loyola Chicago*

Mountain West (2): San Diego State, Utah State

West Coast (2): BYU, Gonzaga*

America East: Hartford

Atlantic Solar: Liberty*

Massive Sky: Jap Washington

Massive South: Winthrop*

Massive West: UC Santa Barbara

Colonial: Drexel*

Convention USA: Western Kentucky

Horizon: Cleveland State*

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Buffalo

MEAC: Norfolk State

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s*

Ohio Valley: Morehead State*

Patriot: Colgate

Southern: UNC Greensboro*

Southland: Abilene Christian

SWAC: Prairie View A&M

Summit: Oral Roberts*

Solar Belt: Appalachian State*

WAC: Grand Canyon

* Earned computerized bid

Comply with Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on faculty hoops and to obtain an replace at any time when new brackets are posted.

Filed to: 2020-2021 Bracketology

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