HomeNBABracketology: Closing NCAA event projection as of March 14, 2021
Bracketology: Closing NCAA event projection as of March 14, 2021
March 14, 2021
Sunday proved to be comparatively uneventful as Houston blew out Cincinnati to get rid of the final remaining bid thief. Consequently, I used to be capable of spend the higher a part of the day diving into explicit areas of the season checklist that have been significantly shut, together with the ultimate 5 seed and good chunks of the 7-9 strains.
In the long run, there have been 5 spots for some mixture of Louisville, Syracuse, UCLA, Colorado State, Utah State, Drake, Wichita State, and Saint Louis. As is commonly the case with bubble groups, it tends to be simpler to make arguments in opposition to every group versus for them. I’m unsure any of them would actually have a grievance in the event that they have been ignored, however my final spot got here all the way down to Utah State and Wichita State with Saint Louis and Colorado State ending up at a the underside of the above checklist.
Earlier than trying on the one seeds, right here’s a fast reminder about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins primarily based on the NET ranking.
A breakdown of the 4 tiers:
· Quad 1: House vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Street vs. groups ranked 1-75 · Quad 2: House vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Street vs. groups ranked 76-135 · Quad 3: House vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Street vs. groups ranked 136-240 · Quad 4: House vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Street vs. groups ranked 241-351
The one seeds stay unchanged with Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois staying placed on the highest line, however the order modified barely on Saturday. Illinois has jumped Michigan because of their win over Iowa and the Wolverines’ loss to Ohio State. Regardless of Alabama successful the SEC event, I felt Michigan’s total physique of labor allowed them to remain on the highest line.
The projections beneath are primarily based on all video games performed by means of March 14, 2021. Following the bracket, I included a couple of ideas on the final 4 in and first 5 out.
16) Norfolk St. / Texas So.
8) Loyola Chicago
9) North Carolina
12) UC Santa Barbara
13) North Texas
11) UCLA / Utah St.
11) Michigan St.
14) Jap Washington
14) Morehead St.
10) Virginia Tech
2) Ohio St.
15) Grand Canyon
16) App. St. / Mount St. Mary’s
8) San Diego St.
9) Georgia Tech
5) Texas Tech
12) Oregon St.
4) West Virginia
4) Florida St.
13) UNC Greensboro
11) Drake / Syracuse
3) Oklahoma St.
14) Abilene Christian
10) St. Bonaventure
15) Oral Roberts
15) Cleveland St.
Final 4 In:
Michigan State is the final group on the seed checklist I really feel is actually protected, which signifies that Louisville narrowly prevented the First 4. There’s little or no separation there in my eyes, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Cardinals within the First 4
UCLA – Bid thieves pushed the Bruins into the First 4. They’ve a house win over Colorado and a sweep of Arizona, who would at the very least be within the at-large image in the event that they weren’t serving a post-season ban. Outdoors of these victories although, there simply isn’t a lot there with a 5-8 mark in opposition to the highest two quadrants. The Oregon State loss moved into quad 2 because of their run within the Pac-12 event. It’s price noting that two of UCLA’s three worst defeats got here in additional time, however the truth stays that they haven’t proven a capability to persistently beat good groups.
Syracuse – It wouldn’t be March if the Orange weren’t on the bubble, they usually gave Virginia all it might deal with within the ACC quarterfinals, shedding on a last-second shot. To the extent that the attention take a look at comes into play, Syracuse handed it. In the event you look past that although, the Orange have only one quad 1 win (at NC State), whereas residence victories over Clemson, UNC, and Virginia Tech all sit in quad 2 together with two extra wins over NC State. Syracuse’s solely losses outdoors of the quad 1 each got here to Pitt, they usually completed the season simply 2-7 in street video games.
Drake – Enjoying with out two of its greatest gamers, Drake fell within the finals of the Missouri Valley convention event final weekend. The Bulldogs solely needed to win one sport to get there because of COVID points for Northern Iowa, however Drake’s lone event win over Missouri State did present a fifth quad 2 victory. A one-point additional time win over Loyola Chicago accounts for the Bulldogs’ lone victory over a group within the prime 90 of the NET regardless of having these 5 quad 2 wins. A pair of quad 3 losses doesn’t assist issues, however losses by so lots of their fellow bubble groups have possible helped their case. Given the damage scenario, the First 4 appears a probable (and logical) vacation spot assuming the committee will get some excellent news in regards to the availability of Tank Hemphill.
Utah St. – The Aggies got here up quick in opposition to San Diego State within the MWC closing, which leaves them clinging to the ultimate at-large bid. Friday’s victory over Colorado State propelled Utah State into the highest 40 of the NET, and the Aggies now sit at 4-6 within the prime two quadrants, which incorporates two wins apiece in opposition to Colorado State and San Diego State. They do have a pair of quad 3 losses, which can find yourself bumping them out of the sphere, but when there’s a second MWC group within the area, Utah State could be the selection.
First 5 Out:
Wichita State – Had the Shockers taken care of Cincinnati and superior to the AAC closing in opposition to Houston, I’d like their at-large hopes much more. The loss to UC falls firmly in quad 3 and pushed Wichita State’s NET into the low 70s. It additionally most likely doesn’t assist that the Shockers additionally practically misplaced to USF within the AAC event and Cincinnati subsequently bought dismantled by Houston. A house win over Houston and a street win over Ole Miss are the Shockers’ solely victories in opposition to the highest 100 of the NET, which is partially a perform of getting some league video games canceled. That being stated, it appears like the overall lack of high quality wins may be an excessive amount of to beat.
Saint Louis – Due to a prolonged COVID pause, the Billikens performed simply 10 convention video games, ending at 6-4 within the Atlantic-10. House victories over St. Bonaventure and LSU are amongst SLU’s 4 wins in opposition to the highest two quadrants, however the Billikens have been swept by Dayton (one in all which falls in quad 3) and suffered one other quad 3 loss at La Salle. They took care of UMass of their first A-10 event sport however misplaced by 18 to St. Bonaventure within the semis. Finally the argument right here relies on each quad 3 losses coming proper after that one-month COVID pause, so their inclusion is banking on the committee taking that into consideration and slotting them within the first 4 with an opportunity to show they belong.
Colorado State – Following their semifinal loss to Utah State, the Rams are proper on the cutline. They posted a 3-4 mark versus the opposite tournament-caliber squads within the Mountain West, and people three wins all fall within the prime two quadrants. CSU has no losses outdoors of the highest two quadrants, however a whopping 10 of the Rams’ 17 D-I victories fall in quad 4. To be truthful, solely a type of got here in opposition to a non-conference foe. A more in-depth have a look at their 4 quad 1 losses exhibits that CSU misplaced all of them by at the very least 12 factors.
Ole Miss – The Rebels missed out on an enormous alternative on Friday, falling to LSU within the SEC quarterfinals. Ole Miss has three quad 1 wins and a 7-9 mark in opposition to the highest two quadrants, with a house win over Tennessee and a sweep of Missouri the one wins in opposition to at-large caliber groups. The Rebels have a pair of quad 3 losses and a complete of 5 losses to groups not within the at-large image. For what it’s price, they misplaced their two hardest non-conference video games, which got here at Dayton and residential in opposition to Wichita State. This yr is undoubtedly distinctive by way of how non-con efficiency will be judged, however all 5 of their non-con wins fall in quad 4, leaving them at simply 11-11 in opposition to the highest three quadrants.
Boise State – The Broncos misplaced to Nevada for a 3rd time this season and closed the season on a four-game shedding skid. The committee says they don’t put extra weight on latest play, nevertheless it’s additionally onerous to completely overlook. Boise State is 4-7 in opposition to the highest two quadrants with street wins at BYU and Colorado State to go along with a house sweep of Utah State. A late-season loss to Fresno State falls in quad 4 although, and as anticipated, they have been handed up primarily based on Friday’s outcomes.