HomeNFLThe Chiefs may trade up for an offensive tackle — but what if they trade down?
The Chiefs may trade up for an offensive tackle — but what if they trade down?
April 15, 2021
By itself, it’s laborious sufficient to foretell how the NFL Draft may go. It requires not solely a strong data of many lots of of faculty soccer prospects but additionally the precise wants of 32 NFL groups.
Including potential draft trades to the equation makes it all of the tougher. Some analysts historically draw back from the extra problem by fully ignoring the likelihood they may occur.
However in 2021, a number of groups have already made draft trades — apparently with a view to safe one of many many quarterbacks who can be out there. That’s emboldened some analysts to suggest trades of their mock drafts — even some for groups just like the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, which positively gained’t be in search of a brand new beginning quarterback this season.
Choice 1: Buying and selling up
Contemplating that the group launched each of its beginning offensive tackles in early March — and that the group could be choosing thirty first after making the Tremendous Bowl in February — some have felt that the apparent transfer for the Chiefs could be to commerce as much as choose a rookie left deal with who might instantly start defending quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ blind aspect.
In an article about potential draft-day trades revealed final week on NFL.com, draft analyst Chad Reuter proposed that the Chiefs commerce their thirty first choose (plus one in all their fourth-round picks and one in all their fifth-round picks) for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ twenty fifth choose.
Assuming the highest 4 tackles are off the board by 25, Kansas Metropolis might goal Samuel Cosmi or Alabama left deal with Alex Leatherwood right here. Jacksonville might use a deal with, as effectively, however with Cam Robinson taking part in on a franchise tag, the Jags can afford to commerce again and discover a worth at 31, or choose a receiver (LSU’s Terrace Marshall, Florida’s Kadarius Toney) or a cornerback like Eric Stokes.
Reuter had really proposed the identical commerce (with out detailing the compensation) in a late-March mock draft. In that one, Kansas Metropolis chosen Oklahoma State’s Teven Jenkins and Jacksonville took Leatherwood. If the Chiefs had been in a position to purchase Jenkins by giving up their additional third and fourth-round picks, it will seemingly be a strong transfer.
However right here’s the issue: if Jenkins is the Chiefs’ goal, they’d in all probability by no means get the prospect to tug the set off. NFL.com analyst Gil Brandt has ranked him because the draft’s twenty first greatest participant. Professional Soccer Focus has him at twenty sixth. Of their 2021 KC Draft Information, our AP Nerd Squad ranked him seventeenth. In most mock drafts, Jenkins not often lasts into the 20s — a lot much less by the twenty fourth choose.
Likewise, buying and selling up simply to get both Cosmi or Leatherwood — as Reuter recommended extra not too long ago — would make little sense. Brandt, PFF and our Nerd Squad all determine each gamers can be out there effectively after the thirty first choose, so buying and selling up would seemingly be a waste of draft belongings.
If the Chiefs actually wish to seize one of many top-rated offensive deal with prospects, they’ll must make an even bigger transfer. The Atlanta Falcons have already indicated a willingness to commerce away the fourth choice, which might give Kansas Metropolis the choose of the litter at deal with — together with Oregon’s Penei Sewell. Such a transfer, nevertheless, can be very pricey. The Chiefs must surrender the farm to make it — no less than a first-rounder in 2022 and a giant chunk of their 2021 draft belongings. Except they see Sewell (or maybe Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater) as a slam-dunk generational expertise, this appears most unlikely.
I checked out a number of different trade-up potentialities, however the Chiefs are hamstrung by a primary drawback: they merely don’t have the belongings to be a beautiful buying and selling companion to a group with a extra beneficial first-round choose and a small variety of different picks. If the Chiefs held an early second or third-round choose as the results of a earlier deal, it may be a distinct story — however Kansas Metropolis simply doesn’t have that capital.
Choice 2: buying and selling again
As famous, gamers like Cosmi and Leatherwood may be out there effectively into the second spherical. That is also true for gamers like North Dakota State’s Dillon Radunz, Notre Dame’s Liam Eichenberg or Michigan’s Jalen Mayfield. So long as the Chiefs suppose they’ll be snug with gamers like these, it’s doable they may take into account buying and selling again from 31.
Sports activities Betting Dime’s Matt McEwan has proposed one such commerce. In his mock draft 1.0 — which is predicated totally on betting odds for when particular person gamers can be drafted — he initiatives the Chiefs will commerce their thirty first choose to the Falcons. Whereas McEwan doesn’t specify the compensation, he’s seemingly pondering the Falcons will surrender choose 35 within the second spherical and choose 108 within the fourth spherical to allow them to get again into the primary and take working again Najee Harris.
Which will sound like one thing the Falcons are unlikely to do — however McEwan additionally thinks the Denver Broncos will swap their ninth choose for Atlanta’s fourth to take quarterback Justin Fields. To make the deal, the Broncos must surrender their second-rounder (fortieth general) — or on the very least, their third and fourth-round picks at 71 and 114. With these picks in hand, which may make a later take care of the Chiefs extra palatable to the Falcons.
Then there’s “Dealer Jerry.” A couple of days in the past, ESPN’s Todd Archer recommended that Dallas Cowboys proprietor Jerry Jones — at the moment holding 10 picks — may very well be wheeling and dealing on draft day. Archer thinks the Cowboys will keep put at 13 and choose a defensive participant — as a result of he might find yourself being one of many very first defenders taken in 2021.
However after that?
The Cowboys’ second-round choose is at No. 44. What in the event that they gave up No. 44 and their choose at No. 75 or No. 99 to maneuver up earlier within the second spherical, and even to the tail finish of the primary spherical, to draft, say, Alabama defensive deal with Christian Barmore? No group needs to be as skinny at defensive deal with because it seems the Cowboys are, and Barmore might repair that situation.
Barmore — particularly — may not out there with the thirty first choose; Brandt, PFF and the Nerd Squad rank him between 14th and 53rd. But when he — or another participant Jones fancies — is accessible, we all know he’ll transfer heaven and Earth to make the deal. We prefer to suppose that Chiefs basic supervisor Brett Veach has an entire chapter dedicated to him within the best-selling guide NFL GMs Who Will Struggle For ‘Their Man’ — however let’s face it: Jones is on the quilt.
Most — if not all — of the second-tier offensive tackles will seemingly be on the board for Atlanta’s thirty fifth choose. One or two may very well be gone by the point Dallas’ forty fourth choice comes up. So the Chiefs may very effectively be within the place to get the deal with they want — together with an additional choose or two later within the draft.
All of that is, after all, extremely speculative. The 2 most necessary items of data we have to decide whether or not Kansas Metropolis will make a draft-day deal for an offensive deal with — specifically, how badly they suppose they want a high prospect for the place, together with which tackles they grade most extremely — are fully unknown to us. And it nonetheless may very well be that the participant the Chiefs want will merely be out there to them at 31.
Nonetheless… the potential of an thrilling draft-day commerce is certainly there.