Best & Worst Case Scenarios for When LeBron James Will Break the All-Time Scoring Record

LeBron James is true up there with the likes of fellow GOATs Tom Brady, George Clooney and Beyoncé relating to ageless genetic freaks.

James has prevented the consequences of ageing so effectively he ought to in all probability function in these “DOCTORS HATE HIM” advertisements/memes (He’s 60 years outdated however seems to be like 30! Right here’s how he did it utilizing one bizarre trick!).

However even LeBron is mortal, regardless of every little thing we’ve seen from him. Over his first 15 seasons, James performed in 94 p.c of all potential common season video games, a really staggering feat of endurance.

Since then, he has appeared in 74 p.c of video games. That’s nonetheless a wholesome quantity and one which some gamers can solely dream of. Nevertheless it’s a decline nonetheless.

After getting by way of his first 15 years with barely a scratch, James has suffered two main accidents over the previous three seasons, lacking 20 video games with a groin pressure in 2018-19 and 27 video games with a excessive ankle sprain final season.

Usually, which may not be such a giant deal. However this was a person who by no means bought damage. These accidents had been the primary ever indicators that he wasn’t invincible. For the 36-year-old James, all these miles lastly began to take a toll. He was now not a certain factor to be wholesome each single night time.

Mix that together with his minutes and scoring lowering over every of the previous 4 seasons, and it’s fascinating to contemplate what all this implies for LeBron surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on the all-time scoring listing.

Whereas James would clinch the report 39 video games into the 2022-23 season if he maintained final season’s scoring output and didn’t miss a recreation, listed here are some extra possible methods issues may play out:


Between now and the season LeBron suffered his first main damage, he’s averaging 25.9 factors whereas enjoying in 74 p.c of all potential video games. If he had been to take care of that for the foreseeable future, he would break Kareem’s report in his 56th recreation of the 2022-23 season, his final contracted 12 months with the Lakers.

If James had been to proceed the scoring manufacturing and proportion of video games performed that he has managed since 2019-20, the primary Lakers season by which he had a celebrity teammate to lighten the load, he would surpass Kareem in his 60th recreation of the 2022-23 season.

And contemplating LeBron has performed in 74 p.c of video games since arriving in LA, his 60th recreation tasks to be his final recreation of the season.

If James performed or scored even barely beneath his Lakers averages, he must wait till the start of the 2023-24 season to develop into the all-time main scorer.


Getting into his 19th season, and with an enormous quantity of veteran assist round him, James might determine it’s lastly time to considerably dial again his enjoying time within the common season.

His minutes have decreased yearly for the previous 5 years, however solely very barely. So, let’s say James decides to reel it in to about half-hour per recreation, having averaged 33.4 minutes final season.

If he fits up for a similar proportion of obtainable video games that he’s performed since changing into a Laker, whereas scoring on the identical charge per minute, he would break Kareem’s report in his 16th recreation of the 2023-24 season.

By that stage, James could be in his 21st season and approaching 39 years of age. In fact, an damage past something he’s suffered already would delay issues additional.

However even when issues don’t go precisely to plan, there’s little doubt LeBron will get there ultimately. The one factor price doubting is whether or not anybody will ever catch him.

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