HomeNFLBetting market watch: Line moves, early action and bookmaker insights
Betting market watch: Line moves, early action and bookmaker insights
October 14, 2021
Right here is our weekly take a look at how the NFL and school soccer betting markets are shaping up main into the weekend.
For consistency, traces, totals and betting percentages are from Caesars Sportsbook, except in any other case famous. The betting percentages aren’t particular to the present line or complete and are designed to supply a snapshot of the early motion. The look-ahead traces have been provided prematurely of the earlier week’s video games. Most numbers have been re-opened Sunday night time.
NFL market watch
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday)
Final week’s look-ahead line: Bucs -6.5, 52.5 Sunday line: Bucs -7, 53 Wednesday line: Bucs -7, 52.4 Unfold motion: 87% of the bets and 78% of the cash wagered is on the Buccaneers. Complete motion: 70% of the bets and 51% of the cash wagered is on the over.
Notes: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady stated Tuesday that his sore thumb on his throwing hand just isn’t severely injured and he expects any discomfort to dissipate earlier than Thursday’s sport.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final week’s look-ahead line: Dolphins -3, 43.5 Sunday line: Dolphins -3, 45 Wednesday line: Dolphins -3.5 (-105), 47 Unfold motion: 54% of the bets have been on the Jaguars, however 72% of the cash wagered was on the Dolphins. Complete motion: 52% of the bets and 80% of the cash wagered was on the over.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Washington Soccer Crew
Final week’s look-ahead line: Chiefs -6, 54 Sunday line: Chiefs -6.5, 55.5 Wednesday line: Chiefs -7, 55.5 Unfold motion: 95% of the bets and 95% of the cash wagered was on the Chiefs. Complete motion: 70% of the bets and 75% of the cash wagered was on the over.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Final week’s look-ahead line: Ravens -3, 48 Sunday line: Ravens -3, 51.5 Wednesday line: Ravens -3 (-105), 52 Unfold motion: 91% of the bets and 96% of the cash wagered was on the Chargers. Complete motion: 93% of the bets and 99% of the cash wagered was on the over.
Notes: The betting public sided with the underdog Chargers early within the week at BetRivers’ sportsbooks, the place Los Angeles had attracted 91% of the cash wagered on the purpose unfold. “The Chargers will likely be a public underdog this week; they have high quality wins,” Craig Mucklow, vp of buying and selling for Caesars Sportsbook, stated in an organization launch. “The Ravens have been fortunate to beat the Lions and Colts, and misplaced to the Raiders. I am not satisfied Baltimore is the whole lot they’re made out to be proper now.”
Inexperienced Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Final week’s look-ahead line: Packers -4.5, 46 Sunday line: Packers -4, 46 Wednesday line: Packers -4.5, 45 Unfold motion: 85% of the bets and 80% of the cash wagered was on the Packers. Complete motion: 71% of the bets have been on the over, however 95% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Final week’s look-ahead line: Colts -7.5, 43.5 Sunday line: Colts -10, 43.5 Wednesday line: Colts -9.5, 42.5 Unfold motion: 58% of the bets and 51% of the cash wagered was on the Texans. Complete motion: 82% of the bets have been on the over, however 81% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Final week’s look-ahead line: Rams -6.5, 50 Sunday line: Rams -10, 48 Wednesday line: Rams -9.5, 49 Unfold motion: 94% of the bets and 94% of the cash wagered was on the Rams. Complete motion: 56% of the bets have been on the over, however 76% of the cash wagered was on the Giants.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Final week’s look-ahead line: Panthers -1, 47 Sunday line: Decide ’em, 47 Wednesday line: Vikings -1, 46 Unfold motion: 52% of the bets and 56% of the cash wagered was on the Vikings. Complete motion: 65% of the bets have been on the over, however 85% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Notes: The early motion on the sport at Caesars Sportsbook included a $500,000 money-line guess on the Vikings at even cash.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
Final week’s look-ahead line: Bengals -3, 49 Sunday line: Bengals -3.5, 48.5 Wednesday line: Bengals -3.5, 47.5 Unfold motion: 78% of the bets and 95% of the cash wagered was on the Bengals. Complete motion: 56% of the bets have been on the over, however 95% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Notes: The lopsided motion on the Bengals at Caesars Sportsbook included a $500,000 guess on Cincinnati -3.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Final week’s look-ahead line: Browns -3, 52.5 Sunday line: Browns -3, 54 Wednesday line: Browns -3 (-105,) 49.5 Unfold motion: 71% of the bets have been on the Cardinals, however 58% of the cash wagered was on the Browns. Complete motion: 83% of the bets have been on the over, however 67% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Notes: Early climate forecasts in Cleveland have been calling for heavy winds, starting from 17-19 mph throughout Sunday’s sport.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Final week’s look-ahead line: Cowboys -1, 48 Sunday line: Cowboys -3, 48 Wednesday line: Cowboys -3.5, 51 Unfold motion: 93% of the bets and 79% of the cash wagered was on the Cowboys. Complete motion: 62% of the bets and 99% of the cash was on the over.
Notes: Books are going to want the house underdog Patriots, doubtlessly for an enormous choice. As of Wednesday at BetRivers sportsbooks, extra money had guess on Cowboys minus the factors than had been guess on some other market on the board.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Final week’s look-ahead line: Broncos -2.5, 44 Sunday line: Broncos -3, 44.5 Wednesday line: Broncos -3.5, 44 Unfold motion: 60% of the bets and 85% of the cash wagered was on the Broncos. Complete motion: 65% of the bets have been on the over, however 71% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Notes: Books took completely different approaches to ex-Raider coach Jon Gruden’s resignation this week. Some sportsbooks halted betting on the sport; different books, together with Caesars, saved the sport on the board and tweaked the road barely. Caesars moved the Broncos from -3 to -3.5 on the information of Gruden’s resignation. “Invoice Belichick is the one coach the place the unfold would transfer considerably if he wasn’t on the sidelines,” Mucklow stated. “On this occasion, you’ve got a Tremendous Bowl-winning coach being changed by somebody who’s by no means been a head coach. With how the Raiders have appeared not too long ago and all of the distractions which are happening, it isn’t a shock that this quantity moved off 3. We’ll see how the gamers reply to the brand new coach, however clearly this can be a completely different case in comparison with coaches that get fired midseason for poor data.”
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final week’s look-ahead line: Seahawks -2.5, 48 Sunday line: Steelers -4, 43 Wednesday line: -5, 42.5 Unfold motion: 69% of the bets and 75% of the cash wagered was on the Steelers. Complete motion: 68% of the bets have been on the over, however 88% of the cash wagered was on the underneath.
Notes: The road flipped from Seattle -2.5 to Steelers -3 after Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson suffered an injured finger in a loss to the Rams final Thursday. The whole dropped from 48 to 42.5 on the information of Wilson’s damage, which is anticipated to maintain him out a number of weeks, though not particular timetable has been given for his return.
Buffalo Payments at Tennessee Titans (Monday)
Final week’s look-ahead line: Payments -3, 52.5 Sunday line: Payments -4.5, 53.5 Wednesday line: Payments -5.5, 54 Unfold motion: 94% of the bets and 96% of the cash wagered was on the Payments. Complete motion: 81% of the bets and 73% of the cash was on the over.
A bookmaker’s strategy to varsity soccer traces
Circa Sports activities is liable for the primary school soccer traces to hit the betting market every week. The guide posts its opening traces at 11 a.m. PT on Sundays and gives $3,000 betting limits to all comers, together with skilled bettors. Inside the business, Circa Sports activities is what’s thought-about a “sharp guide.” Their limits develop quickly by means of the week and, by the point kickoff approaches, will likely be among the many largest within the betting market.
Matt Metcalf, sportsbook director for Circa Sports activities in Las Vegas, is sharing his bookmaking strategy with ESPN this soccer season.
Handicapping the Sooners’ QB state of affairs
Metcalf moved Oklahoma up three factors in his energy rankings primarily based on the offense he noticed towards Texas within the second half. The Sooners inserted freshman quarterback Caleb Williams rather than starter Spencer Rattler towards Texas and rallied from 18 factors down within the second half to knock off the Longhorns 55-48.
“I am assuming they will do what it takes to have that offense. If that entails not taking part in Rattler, I feel they will go that route,” Metcalf stated. Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley has declined to call a beginning quarterback for Saturday’s sport towards TCU.
The Sooners opened as 12-point favorites over TCU at Circa. Metcalf initially wished to make use of Oklahoma -14, however, with out realizing for positive whether or not Williams or Rattler will begin, elected to go along with the decrease quantity.
“I did not wish to commit all the way in which to getting that Oklahoma crew that we noticed within the second half,” Metcalf stated. “In the event that they did play Rattler, I feel the quantity nonetheless works.”
The road had grown to Oklahoma -14 by Wednesday
Studying forward of the market on Clemson-Syracuse
Studying data on accidents can pressure Circa Sports activities oddsmakers right into a guessing sport of making an attempt to determine whether or not bettors have learn the identical data. This week, it occurred when Metcalf and his crew have been formulating the purpose unfold on the Clemson-Syracuse sport. Metcalf had learn that key Syracuse beginning offensive linemen missed final week’s sport towards Wake Forest with accidents and thought that Clemson’s defensive entrance would have the benefit. Plus, with Clemson coming off a bye week, he felt like this was a great place for the Tigers.
The consensus line amongst Circa’s oddsmakers was Clemson -15, however they ended up opening the Tigers as 17-point favorites.
“The thought was that Clemson, with an even bigger, stronger defensive entrance, would give [Syracuse] lots of bother, so we form of tacked on some factors there,” Metcalf stated.
The early cash got here in on Syracuse, driving the quantity to as little as Clemson -13.5, and the guessing sport started. “I do not know whether or not persons are telling us that they do not agree with it or they simply did not learn it but,” Metcalf stated. “Generally, if we learn forward of the market on accidents, it does not actually pay in a way as a result of we’ll sit there and take lots of bets”
Metcalf could not abdomen leaving the purpose unfold at any lower than Clemson -14, the place it has sat for the primary half of the week.
“I feel Clemson is the aspect I might look to want as a bookie,” Metcalf added, “as a result of it seems like a great place for them.”
Cursing the early motion on Navy-Memphis
Metcalf opened Memphis as 9-point favorites over Navy however was cursing himself three hours after placing the quantity on the board; not as a result of he was incorrect, however as a result of he was proper.
The primary restrict bets have been on Navy. Metcalf moved the quantity aggressively towards the underdog, by means of the important thing variety of 7 and down to six.5. “I do not actually like Memphis,” he stated, “and I wrestle with if Navy has improved.”
At that time, the subsequent a number of max bets have been on Memphis and the decrease quantity, pushing the quantity again to across the opening line of Tigers -9.
“I form of doubted my quantity an excessive amount of, and I used to be incorrect, and so they guess it again up,” Metcalf stated. “So, I am sitting on my opener however have two limits bets excessive on Memphis. I trusted the market over my quantity at first. And our quantity was higher than I assumed it was.”
Memphis was a ten.5-point favourite as of Wednesday afternoon.
Public, sharps agree on Cincinnati
Metcalf believes Cincinnati might be a two-touchdown underdog to the elite groups like Georgia and Alabama, and round 10 factors to Ohio State.
“Nevertheless it’s apparent that everybody is behind that crew,” Metcalf stated. “We took a ton of motion on them final week towards Temple. The general public and the sharp guys undoubtedly like them.”
Metcalf opened Cincinnati as 16-point favorites over UCF this week and attracted fast motion on the Bearcats. The road had settled at Cincinnati -21 as of Wednesday.