Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season continued the theme of chaos that we noticed within the early weeks of the season. The Payments have been capable of upset thte Chiefs and drop the reigning AFC Champions to 2-3 on the yr. The Chargers knocked off the Browns in a sport that noticed 89 mixed factors scored. The Steelers and Bears earned spectacular upset wins over favored AFC West groups.
Underdogs proceed to do effectively, they usually roughly cut up video games with the favorites final week. That makes it laborious for bettors to actually know or perceive which facet would be the greatest, because the underdog benefit seems to have evaporated, however there are nonetheless loads of methods to determine undervalued groups to make some simple cash.
The three issues that matter above all else at this level on the spreads, schedules and accidents impacting every group. We have formally reached bye weeks, so relaxation benefit will change into a much bigger issue for groups sooner or later, because the 49ers, Falcons, Jets and Saints will all have had per week off earlier than their Week 7 sport. So, that is one thing for which to look out.
MORE: Full checklist of odds for NFL Week 6
That mentioned, the remaining benefit will not come into impact a lot this week, so the dimensions of every unfold and well being of every group might be crucial parts to have a look at. Groups are getting extra banged-up because the season progresses, and a few groups are decimated by accidents.
Have a look at the Giants, for instance. They misplaced their prime quarterback, operating again and receiver final week. If all of them cannot play in Week 6, fading them might be a wise play.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins are hoping Tua Tagovailoa can return to motion this week whereas the Panthers are hoping the identical for Christian McCaffrey. And the primary massive harm watch of the week might be for Rob Gronkowski on “Thursday Evening Soccer.” All of those accidents could have a huge impact on betting odds and will transfer the strains considerably relying on which gamers can be found for the highest squads on the slate.
This is a take a look at Sporting Information’ greatest bets for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season, together with picks towards the unfold, moneyline bets, over/below wagers and a few participant props.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/below | Participant props
NFL greatest bets Week 6
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Cardinals (+3) at Browns
The Cardinals are the lone 5-0 group within the NFL, however they’re arising on what seems to be a troublesome sport towards the Browns. That mentioned, betting them as underdogs appears interesting contemplating that Cleveland is banged up proper now.
The Browns have been with out left deal with Jedrick Wills, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney, cornerback Greg Newsome II and prime receiver Jarvis Landry on in Week 5, and it is unclear whether or not these three gamers will return to motion. The group additionally suffered loads of accidents throughout Sunday’s contest, as proper deal with Jack Conklin and corners Denzel Ward and Grasping Williams exited the sport and did not return.
Myles Garrett can be coping with a few accidents to his knee and ankle, so he may not be at 100%.
So, lengthy story quick, the Browns are banged-up, and worst of all, they’re lacking depth at two key positions: offensive deal with and cornerback. If Wills and Conklin cannot play towards the Cardinals, Cleveland might be beginning their fourth and fifth-string tackles, as prime backup Chris Hubbard is out for the season. They may transfer Joel Bitonio outdoors, however that may weaken the inside offensive line.
At nook, the Browns would have bother masking Kyler Murray’s plethora of weapons, together with DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Inexperienced, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. It isn’t time to be with out their prime gamers there.
Making issues worse, the Browns play on “Thursday Evening Soccer” in Week 7, so they might have to consider resting gamers to get wholesome for that sport. The mini-bye after it is going to be useful, but when they rush gamers again to play towards the Cardinals, they will not be able to face the Broncos.
With all that mentioned, it looks like time to guess the Cardinals. They’re successful, taking part in effectively and have the receiving weapons and cross rush wanted to benefit from Cleveland’s weakest positions. They may win this sport outright, so guess on them whereas they continue to be a three-point underdog. It may not final lengthy.
WEEK 6 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Working again | Huge receiver | Tight finish | D/ST | Kicker
Raiders (+3.5) at Broncos
I do know, I do know. The Raiders simply noticed their head coach Jon Gruden resign due to the e-mail scandal. Will not they be distracted by that forward of a troublesome, divisional street sport towards one in every of their rivals?
Positive, it is doable. However surprisingly sufficient, groups that endure midseason teaching modifications have truly received most of the time lately. Since 2015, groups have posted an 8-5 document straight up with an interim coach on the helm. That tilts the dimensions a bit within the Raiders’ favor.
||Recreation after firing
||Win over Vikings 40-23
||Win over Jaguars 30-14
||Loss vs. Falcons 40-20
||Win over Dolphins 17-16
||Win over Falcons 34-20
||Loss vs. Chiefs 37-21
||Loss vs. Cowboys 30-10
||Loss vs. Jets 30-10
||Win over Titans 38-17
||Loss vs. Seahawks 24-3
||Win over Giants 35-30
||Win over Saints 34-28
||Win over Titans 38-10
Granted, Gruden’s state of affairs is a bit completely different than the opposite coaches on the checklist above. They have been largely on the recent seat whereas Gruden’s departure got here collectively quickly over the span of 4 days, so maybe it is going to be a bit tougher for the Raiders to get motivated for this one.
On the similar time, they might see this as a chance to refocus on soccer, they usually have had the Broncos’ quantity lately. They maintain a 7-4 document towards them of their final 11 conferences and have taken 4 of the final 5. Two of the Raiders’ losses in that span have been by a single level, too, so they might have coated a 3.5-point unfold in 9 of those 11 video games.
The Raiders could also be with out their coach, however they nonetheless are a strong 3-2 group and the Broncos’ stout protection simply surrendered almost 400 yards and 27 factors to the hapless Steelers’ offense. Las Vegas usually performs Denver shut even on the street, so trusting them to maintain this sport inside a discipline aim is a wonderful transfer.
RIVERA: Who’s Wealthy Bisaccia? Meet the Raiders’ interim head coach
Rams (-10.5) at Giants
There’s nothing attractive about trusting a ten.5-point street favourite, however there’s loads to love concerning the Rams on this matchup. Or, at the very least, there’s loads to dislike concerning the Giants.
The Giants already had points with consistency on offense, they usually solely determine to be heightened with Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Gollday (knee) out of motion in Week 6. And if Daniel Jones cannot clear the NFL’s concussion protocol, the group might be in even worse form, as they will be with out their prime quarterback, operating again and receiver towards a strong protection.
Jones’ standing might be crucial factor to look at on this sport. If he is out of motion, Mike Glennon would be the starter. Glennon often places up first rate stats, however he has received simply as soon as in 9 begins since 2017. Throughout that span, Glennon’s groups have been overwhelmed by a mean of 14.1 factors per sport; his groups have averaged simply 16.8 factors per begin.
That does not bode effectively for Glennon, particularly contemplating that the Rams are averaging 28.2 factors per sport (eighth-best within the NFL) and are permitting simply 23.2 factors per sport (Twelfth-fewest within the NFL).
The Giants are averaging simply 20.6 factors per sport with Jones, and that quantity figures to lower if Glennon begins. So, be at liberty to belief the Rams if Glennon begins, at the same time as massive favorites.
Finest NFL moneyline bets Week 6
Panthers moneyline (+102) vs. Vikings
Bettors seem like apprehensive about betting the Panthers. They only struggled to maneuver the ball on offense towards the Eagles and noticed Sam Darnold have his worst sport for them as a starter. They’re additionally taking part in a Vikings’ protection that has allowed not more than 17 factors in every of the group’s final three video games.
That mentioned, Carolina could also be getting a lift this week within the type of Christian McCaffrey. He was trending in the best path final week however was held out simply in order that the Panthers may be sure that he;’s absolutely wholesome. He ought to have an opportunity to return towards the Vikings and supply the group’s offense a lift.
For the reason that begin of 2020, McCaffrey has performed in six video games for the Panthers and missed 15. The group is averaging 24.5 factors per sport with him within the lineup and 21.2 with out him. The Vikings have allowed the Eleventh-most speeding yards per sport this season at a mark of 130, so McCaffrey ought to be capable to benefit from that weak spot — if he will get wholesome.
The Panthers are 3-0 with McCaffrey within the lineup this yr, too, and their protection ought to match up effectively towards the Vikings, who’ve averaged simply 13 factors of their final two video games towards the Browns and Lions. They need to most likely be the favored facet as an alternative of house underdogs, sot this can be a good worth pickup right here.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Payments proving to be severe contender
Lions moneyline (+158) vs. Bengals
This is a pleasant underdog sleeper to think about this week. The Lions could also be 0-5, however they’ve two 19-17 losses on the books that have been real heartbreakers.
Their first shut loss noticed Justin Tucker make an NFL-record 66-yard discipline aim to provide the Ravens a last-second win. Tucker had only a 10.4 p.c likelihood of creating that kick, per Subsequent Gen Stats.
The second got here final week when Vikings kicker Greg Joseph nailed a 54-yard kick to sink Detroit’s ship. The Vikings’ win chance earlier than that kick was simply 26.2 p.c.
That mentioned, the truth that the Lions have been within the sport towards two superior groups is good news. The Lions have one of many most talent-bereft rosters within the NFL, however they’re taking part in laborious for Dan Campbell. Even in Week 1 towards the 49ers, they did not fairly regardless of being down 28 and almost got here again to tie that contest.
Campbell has the Lions taking part in effectively. They’ve simply gotten unfortunate, and this could possibly be a nasty spot for the Bengals. They’re coming off a deflating, additional time loss to the Packers that that they had a few possibilities to win. Evan McPherson simply could not make the lengthy discipline targets to ship the Bengals house. Now, they’re taking part in a winless group that they might overlook forward of a key divisional matchup towards the Ravens in Week 7.
Additionally, 4 of Cincinnati’s 5 video games to this point have been determined by three factors. The Lions ought to have an opportunity to maintain this shut both method and whereas Lions (+3.5) appears to be like like a powerful guess, the worth we’re getting on the moneyline right here is well worth the threat.
Campbell’s first Lions win will come quickly sufficient. This is not a nasty time to anticipate it.
Finest NFL over/below bets Week 6
Chiefs at Washington: OVER 55.5 (-110)
That is the most important level whole of the week, however it’s OK to pick out the over right here. In spite of everything, these are the 2 are the worst scoring defenses within the NFL proper now.
||Factors allowed per sport
||Yards allowed per sport
The Chiefs have but to permit fewer than 29 factors to any group they’ve confronted to this point this season. That appears prone to change provided that they’ve performed many robust quarterbacks together with Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, however their run protection ranks as one of many NFL’s worst. So, even when they do include Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson will nonetheless be capable to rating towards them.
In the meantime, Washington has allowed at the very least 29 factors in every of its final 4 video games, so the Chiefs appear prone to drop a 30-spot on them this week, if no more.
This feels quite a bit just like the Chiefs’ bounce-back sport towards the Eagles from a few weeks in the past. They got here off a loss towards the Chargers and scored at will towards the Eagles, scoring 42 factors. Nevertheless, they might include Jalen Hurts and Co. defensively and surrendered 30 factors. Even when Washington cannot rating as a lot because the Eagles did, the Chiefs can do a bulk of the heavy lifting right here to get this 55.5 whole over the end line.
MORE: What’s mistaken with the Chiefs’ protection, defined
Buccaneers at Eagles: UNDER 52.5 (-114)
On paper, the Buccaneers-Eagles sport may seem like a shootout. Tampa Bay has one of many league’s greatest offenses and their secondary could be very banged up, so why would not they put up one other large level whole on the Eagles?
There are a couple of components working towards them on this sport and on this spot usually. Chief amongst them is Tom Brady’s harm. He’s coping with a thumb drawback and whereas the group has insisted that he is wonderful, we merely do not know the extent of the issue. If he is only a bit off, as we noticed with Matthew Stafford and the Lions on “Thursday Evening Soccer” final week, that might hinder his scoring potential.
It additionally will not assist that Rob Gronkowski, one in every of Brady’s favourite red-zone weapons, is questionable for the sport. Brady nonetheless has loads of weapons that he can belief, however he struggled with out Gronk towards the Patriots. So, if he is out, that could possibly be an issue.
Elsewhere, it tends to be tough to cowl the over on Thursdays. Since Week 2, when Thursday night time video games started occurring simply 4 days after Sunday video games, the below has a 3-1 document. Groups have mixed to attain a mean of 45 factors per sport, and that features some dynamic offenses just like the Rams, Seahawks and Bengals.
It is by no means enjoyable to guess towards Brady’s brilliance, however given his harm and the truth that the Eagles had simply six factors late within the third quarter earlier than Sam Darnold’s meltdown, it looks like the below is extra prone to money right here.
Finest NFL participant prop bets Week 6
Participant props might be added all through the week main as much as video games.
Leonard Fournette speeding yards: OVER 62.5 (-114)
Let’s go over what we learn about this sport. Tom Brady is a bit banged up and it is a quick week. Rob Gronkowski may not play. The Eagles have allowed a operating again to rack up at the very least 95 speeding yards in every of the final three weeks. That features Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Chuba Hubbard.
Fournette, in the meantime, is the lead again for the Buccaneers. He has posted over 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back video games and if the Bucs take a run-heavy strategy to this sport in hopes of retaining Brady from throwing an excessive amount of, Fournette may get 20 carries as he did towards the Patriots a few weeks in the past.
It looks like Thursday night time’s sport will present a optimistic sport script for Fournette and loads of touches, particularly if the Bucs construct an early lead.